• Intelligence Analysis and Methodology
  • Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richard J. Heuer, Jr.
  • Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases — Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman
  • The Logic of Intelligence Analysis: Why Hypothesis Testing Matters — Karl Spielmann
  • Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (2011) — David T. Moore
• Collection
  • Intelligence Collection (2014) — Robert M. Clark (ISBN 978-1452271859)

Intelligence Analysis and Methodology

Understanding intelligence methodology is essential for cyber threat intelligence (CTI) analysts. Many concepts and practices originate from traditional intelligence analysis but remain highly relevant to cybersecurity today. They help practitioners mitigate cognitive bias, structure their reasoning, and strengthen the reliability of analytic judgments when working with incomplete or uncertain data. The following references provide both foundational theory and practical techniques, with notes on their relevance to CTI.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richard J. Heuer, Jr.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (PDF) · EPUB

A seminal work exploring how cognitive biases affect intelligence analysis. Heuer provides practical insights for analysts, practitioners, and academics on improving analytic tradecraft and avoiding common pitfalls in reasoning.

Why it matters for CTI: Helps threat intelligence teams recognize and mitigate biases when evaluating adversary behavior, attack campaigns, or incomplete technical indicators.

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases — Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

A landmark study introducing heuristics and cognitive biases. This work is essential for analysts to understand systematic errors in human judgment, particularly when evaluating uncertainty and probability.

Why it matters for CTI: Supports more accurate risk assessments and reduces the likelihood of overconfidence when interpreting ambiguous or partial threat data.

The Logic of Intelligence Analysis: Why Hypothesis Testing Matters — Karl Spielmann

This work emphasizes the importance of hypothesis testing in intelligence analysis. It explains how structured methods, such as competing hypotheses, can reduce bias and strengthen the reliability of analytic judgments.

Why it matters for CTI: Encourages defenders to test multiple hypotheses when attributing intrusions or analyzing malware, instead of jumping to premature conclusions.

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (2011) — David T. Moore

Moore explores the role of critical thinking in intelligence analysis. The book introduces techniques for structured reasoning, highlighting how analysts can move beyond intuition and apply disciplined thinking to complex problems.

Why it matters for CTI: Provides practical techniques to validate assumptions and improve analytic rigor when building reports, sharing indicators, or correlating threat actor behaviors.

Collection

Intelligence Collection (2014) — Robert M. Clark (ISBN 978-1452271859)

Clark provides a comprehensive overview of collection disciplines and strategies in intelligence. The book examines how different collection methods (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, etc.) complement each other and contribute to the analytic process.

Why it matters for CTI: Reinforces the value of diverse data sources — from malware samples and telemetry to open-source intelligence — and highlights how multi-source fusion strengthens cyber threat reporting.